Judgmental Forecasts


Judgmental forecasts are based on subjective views — often the opinions of experts in the field.  Sometimes there is a complete absence of data, and at other times the data is unreliable or irrelevant to the future.

Quantitative forecasts are always more reliable, but when you don’t have the necessary data, you have to use a judgmental method. There are five widely used methods.

Personal insight. This uses a single person who is familiar with the situation to produce a forecast based on his/her own judgment. This is the most widely used forecasting method  — but is unreliable abd often gives very bad results.

Panel Consensus. This collects together a group of experta to mak experts to make a fore cast. If there is no secrecy  and the panel talk talk freely and openly, you can find a genuine consensus. On the other hand, there may be difficulties in combining  the views of different people.

Market surveys. Sometimes even groups of experts don’t have enough knowledge to give a reasonable forecast about, for example, the launch of a new product. Then market surveys collect data from a sample of potential customers, analyse their views and make inferences about the population at large.

Historical analogy. If you are introducing a new product, you might have a similar product that you launched recently, and assume that demand for the new product will follow the same pattern. If a publisher is selling a new book, it can forecast the likely demand from the actual demand for a similar book it published earlier.

Delphi method. For this you contact a number of experts by post and give each a questionnaire to complete. Then you analyze the replies from the questionnaire to complete. Then you analyze the replies from the questionnaires and send the summaries back to experts. You ask them if they would like to reconsider their original reply in the light of the summarized replies from others. This is repeated several times — usually between three and six — until the range of opinions is narrow enough to help with decisions.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please contact Asif J. Mir.

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Dynamic Goal-setting


If you want to succeed in business, you need to start with a good goal-setting program. Seek out professional help in this area if you are not sure how to identify and set your own goals. A few tips to get you started:

  1. Remember to make your goals specific. the only goals that stand a chance of being achieved are the ones that are clear enough to become part of a mind-set and visualibibg press. The clearer the goal, the easier to accomplish.
  2. Have a deadline for achievement. You can have a terrific goal, t wander around aimlessly without a drop dead date for its achievement. Someone once said that a goal is dream with a deadline.
  3. Consider and anticipate your obstacles. Know where the pitfalls might occur, and devise a plan to work around such impediments.

Above all else, make sure there is a personal benefit to achieving the goal, or it will not serve to motivate you. You need to reward yourself with a vacation.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please contact Asif J. Mir.

Change and Challenges


Executing change presents major challenges. Many organizations underestimate the time and resources needed for change; do not attend sufficiently to coordination and integration of activities;  and fail to build capability for change execution. Typically, change managers get into a fire-fighting mode, waste precious time, energy and resources on dealing with crises, and then over a period of time get cynical and de-motivated.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please contact Asif J. Mir.

Establishing Credibility


Once you’ve opened your doors for business, how do you get the customers to learn from your name and trust it as a reliable source in the community? Ultimately, the way to build credibility is to develop a strong business with a solid reputation for delivering what it promises the customers. But what can you do on the meantime (until you’re a household name)? Here are some possibilities:

  1. Volunteer at local charitable foundations and corporate events. Simply being out there where other influential  types are likely to be found (either as sponsors or as participants)will put you face-to-face with people who can help spread the word about your business. Its worth the donated hours on your part, and you’ll get to widen your circle of acquaintences.
  2. Offer yourself as an expert on your topic of interest. Send regular press releases with tips for consumers to newspapers and magazines. Editors love such items and you stand a good chance of being interviewed the next time a story on your area of expertise rolls around. Be sure to keep in regular contact with the press, even if it is just a quick phone call to ask if they need any help with upcoming features.
  3. Give free speeches at local association dinners. Really, just about anywhere where potential clients gather to learn more about improving their professional (and possibly personal) lives. Association meetings work best because they are always in need for interesting new speakers; so are civic groups and universities.
  4. Create and mail a regular newsletter with useful tips. Giving some information for free can create positive awareness of your company and what it has to offer, People do tend to read newsletters, and even though they may not need your services today, such publications (if well done) will keep you in their minds tomorrow.
  5. Perform your personal best. Ultimately…..

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please contact Asif J. Mir.

The Structure of Knowledge


While developing knowledge systems, it is common for the number of rules or chunks of knowledge in a system to follow a cylical problem. early stages may result in several hundreds of rules. The understanding gained of the nature of the problem and the knowledge required to solve it often results in valuable insight and collapsing of multiple rules into smaller sets of more general rules.  The initial rule representations may give way to very different structures. This may result in substantial system redesign. The intermediate step of the holistic approach may play an important role in revealing the structure of the problem itself and making possible new approaches to its solution. With the underlying structure revealed, the process of reprogramming the system from this new perspective takes placewith a clearer vision of the final product and takes on some of the characteristics of traditional, reductionist techniques.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please contact Asif J. Mir.

Bocoming Process-centered


Your organization is probably divided into separate departments, such as R&D, sales, IT, and accounts. These departments don’t work independently, but should all cooperate to achieve the organization’s goals. To help with this, many organizations have become process centered.

A process centered organization removes the process of satisfying customer demand. Process centering, more than anything else, means that the people in the company recognize and focus on their processes. When an order comes to a traditional organization, everyone does their separate part of the process and seems to work in isolation — sales collect orders, manufacturing makes goods, warehousing adjusts the stocks, transport delivers the goods, accounting sends out the invoices. The problem is that no one looks after the whole process, integrates different operations, or eveb makes sure that customers actually get their products.

In a process centered organization, everyone has the overriding purpose of contributing to a process that leads to satisfied customers.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please contact Asif J. Mir.

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