Estimation of Demand


Potential and forecast are distinct concepts, but they become blurred when estimates of demand are developed. The techniques used to estimate demand differ in their emphasis on the proposed marketing effort. For example some techniques neglect the level of marketing effort and concentrate on the maximum amount of commodity that might be demanded from an industry or company. Estimates produced with the emphasis are closer to being market or sales potential estimates than they are sales forecasts.

Other techniques give great weight to the marketing effort planned for the period and are sales forecasts in the true sense of the word. Still other techniques use historic sales as a basis for future demand estimates. They rely on the implicit assumption that marketing effort in the future period will be similar to what it was in the past.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, and my Lectures.

 

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Choosing a Forecasting Method


The sales manager faced with a forecasting problem has a dilemma: which forecasting method should be used and how accurate is the forecast likely to be? The dilemma is particularly acute when several methods are tried and the forecasts don’t agree.

Each method has advantages and disadvantages, and the decision of which to use will not always be clear. In a typical company, the decision will more than likely depend on its level of technical sophistication and the exercise of historic sales data. It will also likely depend on the use to which the forecast will be put. A forecasting system designed to estimate production scheduling and inventory requirements may rely on a completely different set of procedures than one designed to plan marketing strategy. One guide a manager might find useful when choosing a forecasting method is what other companies have done.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, and my Lectures.

 

Five Economic Eras


Economic era is a historic period of time in which the commerce of the time is dominated by, but not exclusively limited to, one particular activity, whether that be hunting and gathering, farming, manufacturing or information processing. We have waded through five economic eras:

  1. Hunting and gathering: primeval, from the dawn of human history
  2. Agricultural: approximately 8,000 BC
  3. Industrial: 1776—the year  the Watt steam engine was invented and Adam Smith’s ideas first appeared
  4. Information: 1946—the year of the first electronic computer, the ENIC
  5. Knowledge: 1994—the year of the release of Netscape.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, and my Lectures.