Forecasting in Supply Chain


The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategies and planning decisions in a supply chain. Consider the pull/push view of the supply chain. Throughout the supply chain, all push processes are performed in anticipation of customer demand whereas all pull processes are performed in response to customer demand. For push processes, a manager must plan the level of production. For pull processes, a manager must plan the level of available capacity and inventory. In both instances, the first step a manager must take is to forecast and what customer demand will be.

Mature products with stable demand are usually easiest to forecast. Staple products at a super market, such as milk or paper towels, fit this description. Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable. Good forecasting is very important because the time window for sale is narrow and if a firm has over- or under-produced, it has little chance to recover. For a product with long life cycle, in contrast, the impact of a forecasting error is less significant.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, and my Lectures.

Meeting Management: Writing Agenda or Memo


A written memo or agenda is the best means of giving and securing information and if properly put together will focus you as well as the recipients on the objective of the meeting and the means to achieve it. During the meeting it can also be used as a guide and reference, and after the meeting it can serve as a reminder of what was to be accomplished and a means of checking on follow-up actions. Time spent preparing a written agenda will save time during any meeting. Keep it short. Write no agenda or memo longer than one page. Any additional materials, charts, or graphs necessary for the meeting should be included on separate pages, stapled or paper-clipped to your one-page memo or agenda.

The memo or agenda should state the objective of the meeting, the issues to be discussed, the time to meeting will begin and end, the place, the participants involved, and what is expected of them in the way of preparation before the meeting.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, and my Lectures.

 

Letter Writing


Napoleon is reputed to have written more than 50,000 letters in his lifetime. Letterwriting sounds so simple. And perhaps it was, once upon a time. Today, however, more and more letters are being written—over 79 billion yearly. Jobs, sales, friendships, public relations, and even our day-to-day satisfactions depend on our ability to communicate quickly, accurately, and succinctly.

 

Although an impressive amount of business and social interaction takes place over the telephone or in person today, oral communication has not yet begun to replace the written word. The well-written letter remains a staple of business success and one of the strongest connecting links between individuals and organizations.

 

Composition demands clear, logical expression. It needs the ability to sift and organize material and present it in an orderly and unambiguous way. To do this well you must have a sound knowledge of English. You must know what words mean and you must know the rules of grammar. Having a good command of words is not to be confused with a high-flown literary style, which would be out of place in business. The important thing is to be clear and exact in what you write.

 

It should be just as easy to understand people we have not actually met by reading their letters as it is in speaking to them on the telephone. As the speaker pauses for breath between phrases, the writer inserts a comma between phrases. The full stop brings to a conclusion what the writer has to say.

 

There are six points or stops which we call punctuation. They are the comma, semicolon, colon, full stop, question mark and explanation mark. There are seven, if you include the dash. The uses of the full stop, the question and exclamation marks are so clear that mistakes can scarcely occur.

 

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, Line of Sight