Value Stream Management

Value Steram Management is a strategic and operational approach to the data capture, analysis, planning and implementation of effective change within the core cross-functional or cross-company processes required to achieve a truly lean enterprise.

 

Value Stream Mapping approach was initially developed with an underlying rationale for the collection and use of the suite of tools as being ‘to help researchers or practitioners to identify waste in individual value streams and, hence, find an appropriate route to (its) removal. The approach requires the researcher to identify the severity of a series of wastes that exist generically within a supply chain and to choose, apply and then analyse the out output from a series of appropriate contingent tools.

 

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please visit www.asifjmir.com, Line of Sight

Judgmental Forecasts

Judgmental forecasts are based on subjective views — often the opinions of experts in the field.  Sometimes there is a complete absence of data, and at other times the data is unreliable or irrelevant to the future.

Quantitative forecasts are always more reliable, but when you don’t have the necessary data, you have to use a judgmental method. There are five widely used methods.

Personal insight. This uses a single person who is familiar with the situation to produce a forecast based on his/her own judgment. This is the most widely used forecasting method  — but is unreliable abd often gives very bad results.

Panel Consensus. This collects together a group of experta to mak experts to make a fore cast. If there is no secrecy  and the panel talk talk freely and openly, you can find a genuine consensus. On the other hand, there may be difficulties in combining  the views of different people.

Market surveys. Sometimes even groups of experts don’t have enough knowledge to give a reasonable forecast about, for example, the launch of a new product. Then market surveys collect data from a sample of potential customers, analyse their views and make inferences about the population at large.

Historical analogy. If you are introducing a new product, you might have a similar product that you launched recently, and assume that demand for the new product will follow the same pattern. If a publisher is selling a new book, it can forecast the likely demand from the actual demand for a similar book it published earlier.

Delphi method. For this you contact a number of experts by post and give each a questionnaire to complete. Then you analyze the replies from the questionnaire to complete. Then you analyze the replies from the questionnaires and send the summaries back to experts. You ask them if they would like to reconsider their original reply in the light of the summarized replies from others. This is repeated several times — usually between three and six — until the range of opinions is narrow enough to help with decisions.

My Consultancy–Asif J. Mir – Management Consultant–transforms organizations where people have the freedom to be creative, a place that brings out the best in everybody–an open, fair place where people have a sense that what they do matters. For details please contact Asif J. Mir.